Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) present an exciting innovation in automobile technology. Their potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve fuel efficiency, and provide unlimited driving ranges is unmatched. However, this potential can only be realized if consumers embrace this new technology with open arms. This article explores the factors influencing PHEVs’ market penetration, the real-world electric driving shares, travel distance electrification, and their impact on greenhouse gas emissions.
The Potential of PHEVs
PHEVs have a unique advantage over traditional vehicles due to their dual power sources – an internal combustion engine and an electric motor powered by a rechargeable battery. This combination allows PHEVs to function as either traditional gasoline-powered vehicles or battery electric vehicles, depending on the conditions.
However, the success of PHEVs in the market largely depends on consumer adoption. Several agent-based models have been developed to forecast the potential market penetration of PHEVs. Still, gaps in the available data have limited their usefulness.
Factors Influencing PHEV Adoption
To understand the factors that could influence PHEV adoption, a survey was conducted with 1000 U.S residents. The survey revealed some interesting patterns and correlations.
For instance, respondents who felt strongly about reducing U.S transportation energy consumption and cutting greenhouse gas emissions had greater odds of considering purchasing a compact PHEV. However, even those most inclined to consider a compact PHEV were generally unwilling to pay more than a few thousand U.S dollars extra for the sticker price.
Financial and battery-related concerns were identified as major obstacles to widespread PHEV market penetration.
Real-world Electric Driving Shares
Real-world utility factors (UF) depend heavily on the All-Electric Range (AER), thus differing considerably between PHEV models. AER is the maximum distance a PHEV can travel solely on battery power. The average AER of current PHEV models is about 50 km, but real-world AER are often shorter due to higher energy consumption.
Data analysis from 73,000 PHEVs covering 16 different models reveal that about 30% UF can be expected for a 25 km AER, increasing to almost 50% for 40 km AER. Beyond that range, the gain in UF per additional km of AER lessens.
Travel Distance Electrification
The actual UF in different markets can be used to compare the average annual kilometres electrified by PHEVs and Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs). It was found that long-ranged PHEVs with AER around 60 km achieve about 12-15,000 electrified Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT), similar to BEVs with about 12-17,000 km.
However, PHEVs require only about half the battery capacity for this electric mileage. Therefore, battery usage, measured in annual electrified VKT per kilometer of AER, is much higher for PHEVs.
Impact on Greenhouse Gas Emissions
The higher utilisation of the given battery has implications for the life cycle CO2eq emissions of PHEVs as compared to BEVs. While the emissions during the vehicle construction phase are higher for BEVs (due to the higher battery capacity), the higher emissions during the vehicle usage phase by the combustion engine in PHEVs balance this advantage.
Currently, the overall CO2eq emissions from vehicle construction are about 1.4 t higher for BEVs than for PHEVs. During the vehicle usage phase, BEVs might outweigh their disadvantage if their VKT is high and electricity causes few CO2eq emissions.
The specific emissions from the electricity grid are very decisive. An average emissions value of 470 gCO2eq per kWh outweighs already the advantages for PHEVs for the eight-year life time scenario. Hence in all American states with better specific emission levels than Alabama, BEVs are already favourable.
In the future, as the electricity generation decarbonizes and the emission during battery production decline, the BEV will become more and more advantageous for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
While PHEVs and BEVs both offer potential solutions to the pressing issue of greenhouse gas emissions, their success relies on consumer adoption, the improvement of existing infrastructure, and the reduction of battery production emissions. Understanding these factors is crucial to promoting the benefits of electric vehicles and paving the way towards a more sustainable future.